Can you lend me a crystal ball before I go on a long drive? We have seen a small drop in the cost of a gallon of gasoline across Idaho. This follows a drop in the price of a barrel of oil at the end of last week. The dive was brief and linked to the latest news regarding a new variant of COVID. The Saudi Aramco CEO scoffed at this as nothing more than a media-induced panic.
While what is called a black swan event could push oil prices down further next year, major analysts see it differently. In fact, some warn that we may be heading for the most expensive oil in human history. Check out this link on OilPrice.com. Damn it ! Oil at $ 125 per barrel next year then a forecast of $ 150 per barrel for 2023! This would be a doubling of the current averages.
Highest prize in human history
What would that mean at the pumps? A gallon may not double in cost, but we would still witness the highest costs of our lives.
To put that in perspective, a doctor I spoke with this week was in Lake Tahoe a few days ago. He paid $ 5.80 a gallon. It was for a premium grade and not unleaded ordinary. On his way back to Idaho, he stopped to refuel in Reno. It was $ 4.70 for the same bill.
What we would see with $ 150 a barrel would most likely push our prices at the pump past the costs in Lake Tahoe and Reno. Can you afford this? Are you in shape? How far can you cycle? Will your boss install hitch poles?
I’ll trade sea level rise for a cheaper gallon of gas
My friends, if this happens, the American people will drop all objections to offshore drilling, on federal lands, and along the North Slope of Alaska. They will accept another centimeter of sea level rise by 2070 in order to save a few dollars behind the wheel.